Difference between revisions of "Interplanetary atomically precise von Neumann probes"
(→Why mostly mindless nano-replicators "infecting" the solar system likely won't work out: added second part of Peter Diamandis' "deceptive => disruptive" pattern) |
m (→(2) Diversity – Potential for a good "accident"?: fixed link) |
||
| (2 intermediate revisions by the same user not shown) | |||
| Line 58: | Line 58: | ||
This tracks off-topic. <br> | This tracks off-topic. <br> | ||
There's room for a lot of philosophical pondering here. | There's room for a lot of philosophical pondering here. | ||
| − | * it will likely be a long stretch before "we" (as humanity) or something other being intelligent and conscious arrives in the [[gem-gum | + | * it will likely be a long stretch before "we" (as humanity) or something other being intelligent and conscious arrives in the [[gem-gum rainforest world]] |
* once most of the physical space runs out there might be increased focus in explorations in the virtual space of knowledge | * once most of the physical space runs out there might be increased focus in explorations in the virtual space of knowledge | ||
* some argue for finding happiness in maintenance – others say stagnation is the precursor of death | * some argue for finding happiness in maintenance – others say stagnation is the precursor of death | ||
| Line 72: | Line 72: | ||
What about a combination of the two then? <br> | What about a combination of the two then? <br> | ||
Smart replicating probes bringing dumb nano-replicators. Wouldn't that be the perfect storm? <br> | Smart replicating probes bringing dumb nano-replicators. Wouldn't that be the perfect storm? <br> | ||
| − | Likely answer: The highly intelligent | + | Likely answer: The highly intelligent gem-gum vNPs will likely battle each other to not do that once it becomes an apparent problem. <br> |
| − | First digitally and only if that fails physically. | + | First digitally and only if that fails physically. <br> |
| + | That would be good material for a special effect laden SciFi movie I guess. | ||
| − | + | Once it becomes an apparent problem it will likely be not be too already too late because: | |
| − | + | ||
* Restrictions imposed by power sources are a strong limiter. | * Restrictions imposed by power sources are a strong limiter. | ||
These power source restrictions include: | These power source restrictions include: | ||
| Line 83: | Line 83: | ||
* Nuclear reactors are necessarily macroscale devices which brings in the space for higher intelligence again. | * Nuclear reactors are necessarily macroscale devices which brings in the space for higher intelligence again. | ||
* Harnessing geothermal power (on present on larger bodies like Ceres) would be a feat requiring both <br>a lot of higher intelligence and macroscale devices. | * Harnessing geothermal power (on present on larger bodies like Ceres) would be a feat requiring both <br>a lot of higher intelligence and macroscale devices. | ||
| + | Lastly as if really everything goes wrong: <br> | ||
| + | As already mentioned [[grey goo|grey-goo like nanobots]] can't jump asteroids on their own in any reasonable time-frame. | ||
== Related == | == Related == | ||
Latest revision as of 15:37, 2 July 2023
Warning! you are moving into more speculative areas.
This page is basically about on-chip nanofatories capable of
macroscale self replication with the following functionalities added:
- spacecraft mobility and
- solid state mining capability
- motivation for expansion by travel and replication – for some reason or another
It mixes the two concepts:
- interplanetary self replicative von Neumann probes
- gem-gum factories
A good name for this concept seems to be:
"Interplanetary atomically precise von Neumann probes (IAPVNPs)"
Shorter and catchier opition for a name might be:
"gem-gum von Neumann probes"
Contents
Existing challenges and consequences
"Interplanetary atomically precise von Neumann probes (IAPVNPs)"
would likely need to solve some very difficult problems to be successful.
Problems a macroscopic von Neumann probe would face include among others:
- (mobility) effective economic space propulsion
- (resources) solid state mining
- (power) sufficient energy supply
- ...
The necessity to solve a long slew of complex problems with many ways to go about it:
- (1) is orders magnitude more effectivly fulfilled with higher intelligence rather mere than emulated natural selection
- (2) is a recipe that naturally leads to diversity and richness – which may be beneficial may be dangerous or both to humanity
(1) High intelligence
High intelligence needing to be involved means:
- it is more of a reproduction than a replication problem. That is the "sufficient adaptivity" side in the reproduction hexagon is a necessity.
- implementations with higher intelligence win out against ones with less intelligence
About that higher intelligence:
- How much would be still manual? That is: How much would be still in control of the human developers?
- How much would be automated by AI / AGI?
If autonomous AGI plays a major role, what would be it's interests?
Replication and reproduction just for the sake of itself might be a thing of the microscale with not enough space for higher thought.
As an example for where agents with higher intelligence feature reproductive behavior against naive expectations:
Once humans get all the comfy resources that actually would allow for
even more of a population EXplosion what actually happens is sometimes rather a population IMplosion.
(2) Diversity – Potential for a good "accident"?
Regarding the diversity as a consequence of complex problem solving:
In some sense we would actually want a runaway "accident".
That is: If it looks like a solar system wide diversity rich park playground for humans and all of what we value.
As an analogy this is what eventually (after a few not unsevere hiccups) happened in the "accident" that is now called life here on Earth.
Rain-forests are pretty. In some sense they are also an eat others or be eaten by others zero sum predatory endgame.
This tracks off-topic.
There's room for a lot of philosophical pondering here.
- it will likely be a long stretch before "we" (as humanity) or something other being intelligent and conscious arrives in the gem-gum rainforest world
- once most of the physical space runs out there might be increased focus in explorations in the virtual space of knowledge
- some argue for finding happiness in maintenance – others say stagnation is the precursor of death
- eventually some time expansions beyond the solar system may become feasible
- and of course there always was and there always will be the possibility for completely unpredictable discoveries that change everything
- ...
Why mostly mindless nano-replicators "infecting" the solar system likely won't work out
Mindless self-replicating nanobots as a fine dust on their own would be fully obliterated by space radiation when crossing the interplanetary chasms. Hitching a ride buried in asteroids the universe would likely die of age before exponential growth comes out of its deceptive phase and going into its disruptive phase. (To check). In any case it does not matter since at least they will be over- and outperformed by orders of magnitude by highly intelligent macroscopic von Neumann probes.
What about a combination of the two then?
Smart replicating probes bringing dumb nano-replicators. Wouldn't that be the perfect storm?
Likely answer: The highly intelligent gem-gum vNPs will likely battle each other to not do that once it becomes an apparent problem.
First digitally and only if that fails physically.
That would be good material for a special effect laden SciFi movie I guess.
Once it becomes an apparent problem it will likely be not be too already too late because:
- Restrictions imposed by power sources are a strong limiter.
These power source restrictions include:
- Increasingly limited solar further out the solar system.
- Sun lit surface area to volume ratio being ridiculously low for all but the very tiniest asteroids.
- Nuclear reactors are necessarily macroscale devices which brings in the space for higher intelligence again.
- Harnessing geothermal power (on present on larger bodies like Ceres) would be a feat requiring both
a lot of higher intelligence and macroscale devices.
Lastly as if really everything goes wrong:
As already mentioned grey-goo like nanobots can't jump asteroids on their own in any reasonable time-frame.
