Golf on Pluto
(wiki-TODO: Add a fun memorable image for illustartion here.)
Statement: A golf ball on Pluto when thrown up by human force (max impulse p) will trace through a parabolic channel of x meters radius.
Picke some generous x that is still much smaller than the throwing distance.
This is not a scientific statement as it can't be experimentally tested any time soon.
And once it can be experimentally tested then the problem can be shifted to whatever else is out there.
Yet it is quite clear that this statement is true with high certainty and reliability.
That is: It would be an extraordinary surprise if the golf ball would behave wildly differently (without any tampering).
Like say e.g. starting making wild corkscrew motions exceeding the corridor if radius x significantly instead.
I'll proceed with assuming the (non-contrarian) reader will agree on that.
Instead of extrapolating over space one can just as well extrapolate over time
and also making as of yet non-testable predictions.
But predictions that also still hold with high reliability.
This is what the methodology of exploratory engineering (EE) aims to do.
Details on the prerequisites for that working out are on the linked page.
On could say it is a scientific statement and
the science and testing juts has already been done before.
People tend to not see it that way though.
Especially when it is not extrapolation over space but extrapolation over time.
Don't look too hard!
Yes one could predict the trajectory of the golf ball to much higher predicsion even
taking into account the finite size of Pluto, trace atmosphere, magnetic fields, relativistic effects, and whatnot.
But that is not the point of EE.
Making too precise predictions rather breaks the reliability of EE really badly.
The aim of EE is just to predict the trajectory barely crudely enough
so that one can become quite confident about result of that prediction, and not any much further beyond.
Like e.g. where the golf ball lands crudely in our spacial analogy.
In front or behind that of that huge hill. Not precisely to the hole in one.
Beginning to overstretch the analogy here.
Thus the glimpse that EE gives us is intentionally narrow.
Sometimes stacking the results of EE is considered EE too.
Though this also reduces its reliability.
And one gets into a house of cards of territory of stacked dependencies again.
Where to stop with that is a matter of debate.
Here on this wiki …
- "low level EE" is basic direct results with relly high reliability.
- "high(er) level EE" is increaingly stacking of these results with diminishing reliability.
Stuff that relly stetches thin on this wiki ae marked with
the in line marker: Template:Specualtivity warning
And the whole page warning banner: