House of cards - Revision history

Apm: /* How to avoid a total collapse of absolutely everything (as attempted in this wiki) */ fixed error in order

2021-06-24T10:53:36Z

How to avoid a total collapse of absolutely everything (as attempted in this wiki): fixed error in order

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:53, 24 June 2021
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	== How to avoid a total collapse of absolutely everything (as attempted in this wiki) ==		== How to avoid a total collapse of absolutely everything (as attempted in this wiki) ==

			=== First: Focus on a broad solid basis ===

			See: [[Exploratory engineering]]

	The approach here on this wiki for all things that go beyond the basic rock solid predictions of LOW LEVEL [[exploratory engineering]]		The approach here on this wiki for all things that go beyond the basic rock solid predictions of LOW LEVEL [[exploratory engineering]]
	is twofold.		is twofold.

	~~=== Focus on a broad solid basis ===~~

	~~See: [[Exploratory engineering]]~~

	=== Mark the risky predictions further up the cardhouse as such ===		=== Mark the risky predictions further up the cardhouse as such ===

Apm: /* How to avoid a total collapse (as attempted in this wiki) */ added headlines and some fixes

2021-06-24T10:52:27Z

How to avoid a total collapse (as attempted in this wiki): added headlines and some fixes

← Older revision		Revision as of 12:52, 24 June 2021
Line 24:		Line 24:
	* Predictions get more and more exciting and presentable to a general low or non technical audience.		* Predictions get more and more exciting and presentable to a general low or non technical audience.

	== How to avoid a total collapse (as attempted in this wiki) ==		== How to avoid a total collapse of absolutely everything (as attempted in this wiki) ==

	The approach here on this wiki for all things that go beyond the basic rock solid predictions of LOW LEVEL [[exploratory engineering]]		The approach here on this wiki for all things that go beyond the basic rock solid predictions of LOW LEVEL [[exploratory engineering]]
	is twofold.		is twofold.

	~~(1)~~ Mark ~~them.~~ On this wiki pages that cover topics quite far up the house of cards are marked with the following disclaimer:		=== Focus on a broad solid basis ===

			See: [[Exploratory engineering]]

			=== Mark the risky predictions further up the cardhouse as such ===

			On this wiki pages that cover topics quite far up the house of cards are marked with the following disclaimer:
	{{speculative}}		{{speculative}}
			Or this one: {{speculativity warning}}

			=== As far as possible make many predictions (build a wide cardhouse – that does not fall like dominoes) ===

	~~(2) As far as possible make many of them.~~ A broad tree of conclusions rather than a deep tree. It's unlikely that fatal flaws will lurk in all the branches. <br>		A broad tree of conclusions rather than a deep tree. It's unlikely that fatal flaws will lurk in all the branches. <br>
	Well, It's not that the author has much influence on obsessive curiosity anyway.		Well, It's not that the author has much influence on obsessive curiosity anyway.

Apm: basic page

2021-06-24T10:38:49Z

basic page

New page

The term '''"house of cards"''' refers to (riskily) stacking a lot of assumptions on top of each other, 
and when it some-when turns out that one of the assumptions at the bottom of the "house of cards" 
has been false all along then all the further conclusions come crumbling down.

Immunity against that problem is impossible. 
Some measures can be taken though.

== First: start with a solid basis ==

The most basic conclusions presented here on this wiki 
(like e.g. the predicted feasibility and [[high performance]] of [[macroscale style machinery at the nanoscale]]) 
are a direct result of LOW LEVEL [[exploratory engineering]] 
Finding a fatal flaw there is extremely unlikely. 
There is as good as none of "risky" stacking of conclusions involved here.

Current day research limitations vaguley giving (mis)leading hints to infeasibility of 
[[macroscale style machinery at the nanoscale]] does not change that. 
See: [[Effects of current day experimental research limitations]]

== Getting higher and shakier ==

Building up from there over mid to high level exploratory engineering 
* The predictions get increasingly shakier. Errors and fatal errors (effecting only followup predictions above) get more and more likely. 
* Predictions get more and more exciting and presentable to a general low or non technical audience.

== How to avoid a total collapse (as attempted in this wiki) ==

The approach here on this wiki for all things that go beyond the basic rock solid predictions of LOW LEVEL [[exploratory engineering]]
is twofold.

(1) Mark them. On this wiki pages that cover topics quite far up the house of cards are marked with the following disclaimer:
{{speculative}}

(2) As far as possible make many of them. A broad tree of conclusions rather than a deep tree. It's unlikely that fatal flaws will lurk in all the branches. 
Well, It's not that the author has much influence on obsessive curiosity anyway.

== Related ==

* [[Exploratory engineering]] – as a solid basis
* [[Castle in the sky]]