Future world scenarios - Revision history

Apm: /* Related */ added link to World building

2024-11-03T13:21:19Z

Related: added link to World building

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:21, 3 November 2024
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	== Related ==		== Related ==

			* [[World building]]
	* '''[[Story scenarios]]'''		* '''[[Story scenarios]]'''
	* '''[[The look of our environment]]''' ([[Likely visual appearance of gem-gum products]])		* '''[[The look of our environment]]''' ([[Likely visual appearance of gem-gum products]])

Apm: /* Meta about formulating scenarios */

2024-03-23T16:47:04Z

Meta about formulating scenarios

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:47, 23 March 2024
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	== Meta ~~about~~ formulating scenarios ==		== Meta: About formulating scenarios ==

	Coming up with realistic scenarios for the futures (both desirable and undesirable ones) is a very difficult thing to do. <br>		Coming up with realistic scenarios for the futures (both desirable and undesirable ones) is a very difficult thing to do. <br>

Apm: /* Meta about formulating scenarios */ added headlines, fixed wild typo, elaborated sentence

2024-03-23T16:46:38Z

Meta about formulating scenarios: added headlines, fixed wild typo, elaborated sentence

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:46, 23 March 2024
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	Coming up with realistic scenarios for the futures (both desirable and undesirable ones) is a very difficult thing to do. <br>		Coming up with realistic scenarios for the futures (both desirable and undesirable ones) is a very difficult thing to do. <br>
	Using plural here as society is a big thing and ~~tiferent~~ parts may end up at very different futures. <br>		Using plural here as society is a big thing and different parts may end up at very different futures. <br>
	Plus some futures may still have been likely despite not coming up at all. <br>		Plus some futures may still have been likely despite not coming up at all in any of our experienced realities. <br>
	Even for today there is the saying "[[The future is already here it's just not very evenly distributed]]" (William Gibson). <br>		Even for today there is the saying "[[The future is already here it's just not very evenly distributed]]" (William Gibson). <br>

			=== Present as a problematic bias ===

	Predicting realistic futures is not only all about <br>		Predicting realistic futures is not only all about <br>
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	Predictions of the future can easily end up way off due to being too caught up in the present. <br>		Predictions of the future can easily end up way off due to being too caught up in the present. <br>
	That is: Extrapolating too much and too directly from the presence to the future. <br>		That is: Extrapolating too much and too directly from the presence to the future. <br>

			=== More or less random examples for that bias ===

	On the technology side one example coming to mind is that many (if not most) <br>		On the technology side one example coming to mind is that many (if not most) <br>

Apm: basic page

2024-03-23T16:38:13Z

basic page

New page

== Meta about formulating scenarios ==

Coming up with realistic scenarios for the futures (both desirable and undesirable ones) is a very difficult thing to do. 
Using plural here as society is a big thing and tiferent parts may end up at very different futures. 
Plus some futures may still have been likely despite not coming up at all. 
Even for today there is the saying "[[The future is already here it's just not very evenly distributed]]" (William Gibson). 

Predicting realistic futures is not only all about 
hard concrete future physical technology but also about social systems, culture, 
economics, and governance (or [[ecovernance]] if these last two start to merge and become hard to tell apart). 
Lot's of things go beyond [[gemstone based APM]] technology. Beyond the core focus of this wiki. 
Still the author has some thoughts and ideas maybe worthwhile to present. 

Predictions of the future can easily end up way off due to being too caught up in the present. 
That is: Extrapolating too much and too directly from the presence to the future. 

On the technology side one example coming to mind is that many (if not most) 
of the already few [[hard SciFi space operas]] (that aim at some realism) 
assume similar materials and manufacturing techniques as the ones found today. 
But the same goes for aspects that are today considered semi- or nontechnical / social. 
Assuming hard long persistence of big general problems like humanities issue with burning carbon. 
Or social things like predicting that overblocking, shaddowbanning, adpocalyps(es), 
and generally ensittification (yes this term is on wikipedia) is getting worse and worse.

Overlooking that really bad entirely new problems may arise ([[gem-gum waste crisis]], [[population implosion]] , … ?) 
and that ones that are currently really bad really bad ones may get surprisingly squashed

== Scenarios ==

'''Fundamental option to start with is aim:'''
* 🤩 really good one to strive for
* 🤔 balanced one to give a realistic most believable picture
* 😰 really bad one to strive against

Trying to put several extensive world-building scenarios here would explode this page several times over. 
So the author won't even attempt doing so. 
Instead he's going for hypothetical future experience essays. 
Collected on the page: '''[[Story scenarios]]''' 

Not necessarily exclusively, but 
focus of short story essays will be mostly really good hopeful story scenarios 🤩 
as a focus on the bad scenarios ones will come fro many authors naturally (and proactively). 
Too proactively and way overblown misled sometimes. See: [[Grey goo horror fable]]) 

Some positive scenario 
– not focusing on inhabitants 
– but focusing ion the landscape/environment 
can be found here on the page: '''[[The look of our environment]]''' 

Looking "away from the horizon" closer to small things an objects: 
See page: '''[[Likely visual appearance of gem-gum products]]''' 

Fore some topics clearly not related to [[gem based APM]]
but only management of society (economy, governance, …) 
See page: '''[[A better internet]]'''

== Related ==

* '''[[Story scenarios]]'''
* '''[[The look of our environment]]''' ([[Likely visual appearance of gem-gum products]])
* [[A better internet]]
* [[Ecovernance]] … A hypothetical future where economy and governance merged so far that they are no longer clearly/simply separable
* [[Gem-gum waste crisis]]

== External links ==

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enshittification
* https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adpocalypse (Italian page. No English one as of time of writing 2024.)
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_filter#Overblocking
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_banning